Some people are saying that online’s share has stalled out. But if you look at the relevant categories, its increased from 29 to 30% between 2018 and 2020, up from just 16% in 2014. Online spending has almost doubled in the last four years, compared to a 36% increase in all retail categories.

These numbers are based on the U.S. Census of retail trade, netting out the purchases not easily made online: motor vehicles and parts, gas and fuel oil, food and beverage stores, and food services and drinking places. If these trends continue, in five years online retail could have one-third of all non-auto/ non-food purchases.