Barry Sternlicht, founder of Starwood, is one of the smartest people in real estate. He’s made a fortune forecasting the market.  He made his start at age 31 in 1991 by buying in bulk from the RTC, went on to buy Westin Hotels, and, in the mid-2010s, over 20,000 apartments from Equity Residential, just before the housing market went crazy again.

This time around, he’s expecting the aggregate value of U.S. office space to drop from $3 trillion to $1.8 trillion, a 40% loss, saying that the market has an “existential crisis” because workers are not returning to the office.

For what it’s worth, that 40% number is the one I’ve been projecting for the last six months, based on return-to-work rates in major cities.